Stratfor’s Decade Forecast 2015-2025

Chaitanya Jyothi Museum Opening, 2000

RAMANAM
In the Name of The Father, and of The Son and of The Holy Spirit, Amen.

Countrymen,

ORBIS NON SUFFICIT
SOLUS DEUS SUFFICIT

Stratfor has published their decade forecast, 2015-2016.

[I linked their report to this post when I wrote in 2015.  On 03JUN21, I received an email from one Emily Donahue claiming to represent Stratfor, asserting that my linking their report harmed Stratfor, and asking me to remove from my post the link to their report.  I removed from this post my link to Stratfor’s report.  My comments on Stratfor’s report, following, stand.]

My comments on Stratfor’s report follow:

1- This situation [Middle East] cannot be suppressed by outside forces. The amount of force required and the length of deployment would outstrip the capacity of the United States, even if dramatically expanded. Given the situation in other parts of the world, particularly in Russia, the United States can no longer focus exclusively on this region.

Third sentence is true. First and second sentences are not.

2- But the United States will not deploy multi-divisional forces to the region [Middle East].

Already approaching untrue.

3- He says nothing about India!!!! Inexcusable. India alters his prognostications systemically. Does not necessarily falsify but certainly alters them. Also elides Brazil, Philippines and Australia. So I recommend reading with interest and appreciation but not unalloyed faith. I used to subscribe to Stratfor and then took him for shallow, even partisan (Globalist/Leftist, which is where the money is at present). His strength is he tries to base on phenomenology. But he omits significant phenomena and is not catholic in his frame of reference.

Also, he takes US policy as constant across centuries. I cannot concur with that assessment.

There is one constant of US history across the centuries, however, although US policy infrequently and then inadequately addresses it: Caliphists make war on the USA.  They will so long as they exist.  Rational USA policy would be to deliver them to non-existence.  That is easier done than might be thought: conduct text criticism of the Koran, colonize and culture-splice (and here) strategic — for USA peace and fluid international commerce — areas of the Middle East, foster unity between Sunni and Shiite, foster private enterprise throughout the Middle East and hang every mullah, ayatollah, imam and Koranic scholar one can find and track down and hang the rest until none exist.

Update 1: On 27 January 2015, Marine GEN (Ret.) James N. Mattis addressed the United States Senate Armed Services Committee on the subject A New American Grand Strategy.  At Hoover Institution, who published an adapted version of General Mattis’ address, I commented — with edits here — as follows:

Not that it matters, but, I both appreciate and despond over General Mattis’ address here. Appreciate because (1) as a genuine warrior he says what he sees and eloquently and (2) his heart is unalloyed courage and compassion. Despond because (1) his address reflects lack of situational awareness — half his auditors at least regard the nation state, including USA, as obsolete and perishing — and (2) his address, although latterly specifying or implying serious tactical weaknesses of current operations, transits the periphery of his title: grand national strategy.

It is rare for a military leader to grasp and execute the several strands — principally diplomatic, economic and military, but others as well — of grand national strategy sufficiently to create a rational grand national strategic *goal* that is also inspirational. It is rare for anyone to be able to do that. General David Petraeus has that ability, which is why the Anti-American, Globalist-partisan US Justice [so-called] Department is persecuting/prosecuting him. Asking Congress or a bureaucracy to develop that ability and execute with it compares with asking a herd of cats to organize an expedition to summit Annapurna. Distilling and serving a happy grand national strategic *goal* is a personal, leadership thing few can do, but some definitely can and do accomplish. Their thoughts merit discovery and attendance.

The cynosure of a nation is not her grand national strategy. It is her grand national strategic *goal.* Given what we see now, project and anticipate — always expecting the unexpected, as General Mattis mentions, thankfully, in his address — where and what do we want to be as a nation three, five, ten, etc. years hence? What is our goal? What do we really, truly — as a nation — want for and of ourself to be, to do, to think? What is our inner necessity as a nation? What are we on this earth to accomplish as a national presence? And why do members of Congress not live in the states from which they were selected for office?

Related: On 04 March 2015  Marine GEN (Ret.) James N. Mattis wrote for Hoover Institution under title Using Military Force Against ISIS.  I commented:

I am content that GEN (Ret.) Mattis’ thinking, clear and compelling, be expressed in public.  Thank you, General!  Our countrymen are working their way towards how they will think and what they will do when they are quit of the hag riding their back.  And they will be that.  This exercise in preparation for the restoration of national sovereignty and wealth flowing from national moral and intellectual strength is what should be happening and what is happening.  I am content.

Update 2: Onward Christian Soldiers!

Update 3: GEN (R) Petraeus: The Islamic State Is Not Our Biggest Problem In Iraq

Update 4: The Saudi Connection: Wahhabism and Global Jihad, and related: Qatar.

Update 5: Charles Kenny: Saudi Arabia Is Underwriting Terrorism. Let’s Start Making It Pay.

Update 6: Counter-Terrorism: The Origins Of Islamic Terrorism

Update 7: “Why would I tell you about this?” the imam said. “They’re not terrorists,” he said of the radicals. “They just hate the U.S. government.”  Related.

Update 8: Robert Spencer: Muslim leader calls for removal of parts of Qur’an that ‘promote terrorism,’ Muslim cleric calls for his beheading

AUM NAMAH SHIVAYA

Anita Ekberg, Trevi Fountain, La Dolce Vita
Anita Ekberg, Trevi Fountain, La Dolce Vita

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