Might Makes Right
Sorrow Ensues From
Misidentifying Might
A man I admire, Glenn Beaton, writes today on his blog under title Putin is not foolish enough to invade Ukraine. With edits here, I commented:
Russia should be a US ally, along with India. CIA / D-R UniParty — warmongers — are keeping that from happening, along with obstructing a general recrudescence of reason and common sense. Putin would be perfectly happy to do that, as would Modi. The whole world would cheer that development, well, the whole world of humans.
Russia’s problem is her border, especially her western border. They put energy into Western Europe for income, yes, but more importantly, to discourage those countries from marching again east into Russia. Her western borders are an emotional matter for Russia, not economic in the first instance, although later so, but firstly and ultimately emotional. The memory is long of hyper-brutal invaders from west of Poland, West Germanics, the same sort who dwell there, seemingly forever avoiding extinction or refinement.
This is firstly about geography and feelings, rather than economics and trade, although those factors are present, later. Intermarium, which includes Ukraine and the Three Seas Initiative countries, is Russia’s buffer against yet another invasion from the West Germanic tribes, The Franks and their Germanic cousins, Danes and Swedes.
Two ways Intermarium countries can act as buffer to allay Russian fears. (1) Russia rules them, already tried, unhappy and unsuccessful. (2) Russia, USA, and India help them become prosperous, e.g., Poland, Romania, Slovenia, the which felicity is underway with difficulty and would blossom quickly under joint Russian, US, and Indian blessing.
Putin and Lavrov have as their cynosure Ivan, Peter, and Catherine, not Vladimir, Josip, and Leonid. For this important point I invite attention to this SAMS thesis, published in 2019 by a U.S. Army Soldier. Also, this plenary fundamental statement by Lavrov, dating from 2016.
US warmongers and worse — CIA / D-R UniParty — are holding human common sense and US strategic wisdom hostage to their venality. War talk and troop deployment is IO preparation for suspending indefinitely US elections and jumping the likes of Buttigieg over Harris and Pelosi into the Oval Office.
At all costs, whatever Christians believe and Americans want must be tormented to death both here and abroad. They hate Putin because he is not an atheist and permits Christian efflorescence. They hate Americans because they cling to their properties and common sense.
Putin and Russia are not the problem. CIA / D-R UniParty are the problem. US Armed Forces would rightly do their job, their sworn job, deploying against those rascals, to demolish their HQs, and stand their personnel to trial for treason, treachery, and malicious activities.
There is another way to look at this, remembering the strategic ambitions and moves of Ivan, Peter, and Catherine, the which were internally consistent over centuries. They moved stepwise towards Constantinople. Their motivations were religious, commercial, and self-defensive, to include the perpetual Russian problem of secure borders and communications.
To Russians, Moscow is The Third Rome, Constantinople The Second Rome, and Italian Rome The First Rome. The word Tsar means Caesar. Russians remember Alexander Nevsky as of a glorious Caesar. This is emotional, supremely powerful in them.
As is the feeling,
so is the result.
Note, Putin has not taken that name and shows no sign of taking it. But name or not, he has taken up the mantle’s strategic objective of restoring The Second Rome to Christian honor and making of her a Russian asset, per ancient Russian passion, at least the western half of that city.
Putin and Lavrov move to the same purpose and for the same reasons as Ivan, Peter, and Catherine. If they sortie into what is regarded as Eastern Ukraine, it will be because, as they say, rightly, the populations there are mostly ethnic Russians speaking Russian, so they are not invading Ukraine, they are restoring Russia. That is a non-trivial distinction in matters of statecraft, the which deal with emotions as much or more than with troop and materiel counts. Sortie by them into Western Ukraine would supply no strategic value for achieving the objective, Constantinople.
Eastern Ukrainian Russia, in that feeling and thinking, is flank protection for the strategic move on Constantinople. A coup d’œil of rivers and ports along the western littoral of the Black Sea makes the point. Constantinople is Russia’s strategic objective along that littoral. Thus, moves made north of Constantinople will be made, wisely or not, in pursuance of that objective. Nor is speed a consideration for Russians. Russians are inured against impatience and embarrassment, both.
Data point: US and Russian commanders have cooperated quite nicely in Syria for several years now. Connections have been made, such being of the strong stuff of statecraft. Their generals in Syria and Moscow show themselves competent officers in the field, willing to work with American officers, quite confidently and efficiently in fact.
Another data point: Russia’s best naval formations and newest equipment are in the Caspian Sea, not the Black Sea. However, many of those assets can move to the Black Sea via the Volga-Don Canal, an opportunity originally recognized by Peter and completed by The Soviets. Iran is more dangerous to Russia than Ukraine is, and they all know it. Again, the perpetual problem of Russian border and communications security.
Finally, FYSA, coming likely is panic buying in USA for basic household items, in response to self-serving war drum IO out of CIA / D-R UniParty. A frightened people are easy to push around and especially easy to drive into morbidities. Recruitment and retention of mil personnel have collapsed, which is a plus for said IO operators. We’ll see who retains their faith in God.
Reality only occasionally
invades the venal mind.
One plans accordingly.