In the Name of The Father, and of The Son and of The Holy Spirit, Amen.
ORBIS NON SUFFICIT
SOLUS DEUS SUFFICIT
The door to the Middle East has two hinges: Baghdad and Damascus. The weight of the door rests on those hinges, has for millennia and appears destined to continue doing so.
With the battle to annihilate ISIL’s formations beating on and between those hinges finishing up — and with the AQ vector of the Salafi Jihad rebasing in Turkey and Iran — an opportunity exists to repair and lubricate those hinges and reinforce the door they support and control. The geographic base of the opportunity is the line of the Euphrates River. The political base of the opportunity is two areas of stewardship: Russia to the west of the Euphrates, anchored at Damascus, and the USA to the east of it, anchored at Baghdad.
Russia has fewer resources to bring Damascus to gratify her interests than the USA has to bring Baghdad to gratify hers. Thus, yesterday I proposed meeting with Russia to inquire after assistance USA can provide Russia west of the Euphrates. However, there is more to consider.
For example, since the USA’s area of stewardship anchors at Baghdad, she has an interest in the upcoming Iraqi elections, specifically, to keep Iran’s stooges away from mechanisms of Iraqi state power. Iraq is a sovereign nation who is not at war with the USA, and so, the USA will not and should not attempt to impose an outcome on the upcoming elections nor yet manage their mechanics.
However, USA activities that strengthen Iraqi national sovereignty will and should occur with the greatest possible assiduity. Military, diplomatic and financial training of and sales to Iraqis should focus on strengthening Iraqi national sovereignty. The IO messaging — to keep away the Iranian stooges — should be straight-forward, truthful, comforting simultaneously to Iraqi patriots of all backgrounds, picturesque and in local, familiar idioms. It should preach the virtue, battle-strength-builder and opportunity-maker that is Iraqi national sovereignty.
(How Russia handles Syrian national sovereignty post-ISIL is between them and Syrian powers such as they be. West of the Euphrates is Russia’s area, though the USA should offer assistance towards Russia’s objectives there.)
At this time, however, IO/Psyops activities in support of Iraqi national sovereignty should occur primarily on Iraq’s flanks: Turkey and Iran. There is the most strongly needed — yesterday forty years ago — IO opportunity and battle space. Messaging there should include:
- Salafi and Shia Jihad are dead ends that cannot achieve their objective. Observe the evidence.
- Turkey and Iran are surrounded, layers deep, by capable nations and leaders who do not relish the hegemonic ambitions of current Turkish and Iranian power holders.
- USA knows that the generality of Turkish and Iranian citizens — brilliant, proud and capable as they are — is unwilling fodder for their power holders’ cannons.
- USA fosters and will help establish, if asked, Turkish and Iranian (or, perhaps better, Persian) national sovereignty.
- Traditionally, Turkey and Iran are multi-religious nations and the USA — and Russia and India — wish for each of them strong and complete restoration of that heritage.
- Behind these appeals to sweet reason stand assets capable of annihilating Turkish and Iranian power-holders’ obduracy, should they elect to pursue that course of action.
Finally — for today at least — this opportunity presents itself, again in view of the wind-down of operations to annihilate ISIL: USA and Russia should consider extending to Iraqi, Syrian, Turkish and Iranian Kurds an invitation, as its hosts, to meet at a mutually agreeable location on the line of the Euphrates to discuss Kurdish desires regarding their geographical and political future and whether/how Russia and the USA can facilitate achievement thereof.
Update 1: Looters want stability. Builders want opportunity.
Update 2: Michael Totten is getting it, gradually: Turkey Is Behaving Like An Enemy Now
AUM NAMAH SHIVAYA