In the Name of The Father, and of The Son and of The Holy Spirit, Amen.
ORBIS NON SUFFICIT
SOLUS DEUS SUFFICIT
At Rantburg today, a regular contributor and commenter using the handle Besoeker (means visitor in Dutch when spelled Bezoeker) wrote two comments that bear upon USA grand national strategic objectives, to include reasonable proposals for implementation, with respect to Afghanistan and Northern Korea.
He starts with an ownership comparison Sundance at Conservative Tree House emphasizes — Afghanistan / China-Pakistan = Northern Korea / China-Russia — and proceeds through assessments of relative strengths — specifically economic strengths — Sundance highlights in re USA and China.
I quote Besoeker in full:
In many ways, China and Pakistan are to Afghanistan as China and Russia are to North Korea. We have not prevailed in Afghanistan because we have not dealt with the actual threat.
You see the massive Russian “exercise” taking place in Belarus (Read about here in this Klingon publication). This is not only an exercise, it is a trip wire. Should the U.S. take military action against the NORKS, the Russians are prepared to create a great deal of mischief in eastern Europe.
Likewise the Chinese stand ready to cross the Yalu and come south as they did in Oct 1950. They will not permit a South Korean take-over of the Korean peninsula. Additionally, the Chinese would likely use a U.S. strike against the NORKS as justification or an opportunity for military action against Taiwan.
BLUF: Our options (as seen by the Chinese, Russians, and the North Koreans); the U.S. either goes big, or it goes home. It is likely that the state of our military and political will after decades of endless wars precludes major action. The pundits continue to chirp “Options for the U.S. are few.” But the pundits are full of kak !
(1.) End the bombastic war rhetoric and adopt the long game.
(2.) Continue to rebuild the U.S. military.
(2.a.) Begin a systematic extraction of our military from involvement and meddling overseas (endless wars), particularly in the ME and Africa. It should be abundantly clear by now that these efforts are futile, enormously expensive, and quite hopeless.
(2.b.) For the sins of 9/11 and all failures since, downsize the FBI and National Intelligence Community (less NSA) to the strength of a reinforced Infantry Rifle Platoon and rebuild from the ground up.
(2.c.) Terminate the activities of The United States Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISA Court) and Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978. Find another way to do business, secretive courts who report to no one are not the answer.
(3.) Quietly and without fanfare, provide a tailored nuclear umbrella and response for the Japanese, South Koreans, and possibly the Taiwanese.
(3.a.) Shore up regional military support and intelligence collaboration with Australia, the Philippines, and other friends in the Pacific. The regime of Rodrigo Duterte will not last forever.
(4.) Immediately begin the no-notice, systematic and substantive trade reductions with China. This will have the duel effect of putting their economy in the ditch and assisting our own. Walmart and Target will suffer, but it is long, long overdue.
(4.a.) Give substantial tax incentives to U.S. firms who will take up the slack for Chinese import cutbacks.
(4.b.) Look to the UK, Australian, Taiwan, and New Zealand (yes New Zealand), Israel, Sweden, Norway, and Finland for assistance in taking up slack mention in (4.a.) above.
(5.) Adopt the ‘One China’ – ‘One Taiwan’ policy.
(6.) If the Chinese, Russians, and NORKS wish to ‘go big’, so be it. Let both China and Russia quietly know that a nuclear attack form North Korea against the U.S., Guam, or Japan will be immediately seen as a nuclear attack from Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang and will be dealt with as such.
Remain flexible and monitor daily. Modify 1. thru 6. as needed until the pain subsides.
To this, a commenter with handle Matt wrote:
B[esoeker], really good post. Maybe you should post it as an article so it gets more attention. My comment would be that to be able to play the long game we have to do something about the Fiscal Freight Train that’s coming down the tracks. In a sense, our most powerful weapon is the USD, and we’re in the process of unilaterally disarming ourselves. Now, how we do something about that in the current political environment remains a mystery to me.
Concur with you ‘Fiscal Freight Train’ comment Matt. Nixon and Kissinger began the wealth transfer to China decades ago as method of introducing those Chinese Communist fellas to a ‘market based, democratic economy’ with a hope of promoting global peace through democracy.
Kissinger made a very successful career out of wickering Chinese business opportunities for western investors, and continues his efforts today. If there is one thing the Chinese understand, it is BUSINESS. I will refrain from using the tired axiom of the ‘you know whats’ of the orient. Kissinger might find it offensive.
After fifty plus years of assisting the Communist Chinese bolster their economy via massive trade imbalances, I believe we can now bear witness to the failure of Kissinger’s democratization angle (failure that is, for the common man). A colossal cock-up of the first order. They are still totalitarian communists and are likely to remain so.
If our democracy and market economy is to survive, we must re-establish our manufacturing and industrial base. You buy my lawn mower, I buy your polo shirt. If there is anything left over, then purchase an imported Polish ham and have a picnic.
I’m not too concerned about the paranoid Russians. They are experts at collecting global ‘road kill’ and will probably remain so.
Just my penny farthing’s worth.
I think Besoeker’s thinking there is usefully salient and commend it for rumination by all with a mind for USA grand national strategic objective.
Update 1: The political impetus — there were other, non-political, ones — of the 60s protests was this sense of power not being where it was supposed to be, what and where we were taught it was supposed to be and could see, as through a glass dimly, that it was not.
The political impetus of the Tea Party Movement / Trump Movement is essentially the same and just as justified.
If that is true, there is ground for expecting success from auspicious developments.
Update 3: Steve Bannon: China is Biggest Economic and Geopolitical Adversary – All Else Chaff and Countermeasures
Update 4: Why Trump’s U.N. Speech Was A Triumph
Update 5: Spengler: The Bells Of Barcelona Toll For Europe
AUM NAMAH SHIVAYA