In the Name of The Father, and of The Son and of The Holy Spirit, Amen.
Something is afoot in MENA, a new alignment is forming,
comprising Israel, Saud, Egypt and Jordan,
that I can see so far.
Not sure how it builds out,
but I think the Muslim Brotherhood and
Salafism in general are going to be overtaken by
a perfect storm,
even in Saud, where Salafism started.
Here is what I see:
This regime here, as I have said for years, is aligned fundamentally, as Jarrett, the principal actor, is, with Iran via Shiia, which is intrinsically more secular than Sunna. The 0 figure is a stalking horse for the Moslem Brotherhood/Hamas (and here), who, with CIA and Iran, has paid 0’s freight throughout his life. Jarrett, 0 and Moslem Brotherhood/Hamas (e.g., CAIR, but also many other MB fronts) and Iran in this country are the regime running it.
Now, MB is Arab Sunni and Iran is Arab/Persian Shiia. So how does that fit? MB, of which AQ is an offshoot and Hamas the active military component, wants to supplant the Sunni regimes – to purify Islam – and so aligns with Iran temporarily for that purpose. Iranians are happy to play along knowing Arabs in general are weak and cannot stand to them. Persian Iran historically has long periods of ruling the ME and sought more than once to extend their hegemony to Europe.
So MB/Hamas/AQ and Iran are allies of convenience, as we saw Morsi doing before he was deposed, and as we saw when the ayatollahs called in Hamas to shoot and torture their demonstrators a few years ago. This alliance of convenience is also reflected in the White House, where there is Jarrett/Iran the senior partner and 0/MB the junior. Iranians usually out-think Arabs and Africans. Or, they out-flummox them.
Also allied with Iran in convenience is the Sunni Celtic/Turkic Turkey. But only in convenience. Historically Turkey and Iran are enemies, competing super-powers. Turkey supported Morsi as part of the alliance of convenience, as did Iran. But in general Turks and Iranians do not like Arabs. Turkey and Iran share a common fear of the Kurds, who are Celts. They should.
The Turkish PM is a pal of 0. This fits the pattern, although underneath the pal-hood is more alliance of convenience. I’m sure the PM knows Jarrett has put the regime in support of Iran so his relation with 0 is convenience, for the PM. Both think they are getting what they want from the other, plus their dictatorial impulses arouse mutual admiration, similarly to Hitler (PM) and Mussolini (0).
The defense missiles to be in Eastern Europe were pulled because they threatened the Iranian hegemon-extortion game. Had nothing to do with Russia, as the Russians well-knew. Russians love to throw up FUD. Accomplished at it.
The primary intended strategic loser and threat-target in all of this is Europe generally. They are mostly oblivious. Russia sees this and is happy to play along with Iran to maximize the threat, place Europe sovereignty-wise in an untenable position in all respects. Purify the decadent West with Mother Russia’s Holy Church. Lebensraum works both ways.
The secondary intended strategic loser and threat-target in all of this are the Sunni Gulf monarchs. They are in area-weapons range of Iranian and Jarrett/0/MB power. And unlike the Europeans, they are alive to the threat, as Saud just showed, twice over in one weekend. They have long been quiet allies of Israel, now will be more open and Europeans hardly are in a position to push them on that or on their secondary strategic outreach, probably to Russia, for protection – from Iran, whom Russia protects?! Israelis also are allies of Russia. Europe needs Saud oil, at least for now. So do bankers and politicians world-wide. Saud might turn to China (and here), but their historic allergy to communism – a competing dictatorship, and atheistic – would temper that. Saud is terribly isolated in this power politics.
Europe and Gulf monarchs are in a hot seat. One of them sees it, the other is waking up, but not quickly.
Jarrett and 0 also see it and it delights them. They helped engineer it, have wanted to all along. Europe (aka The Church), recall, in the academic/sociology-chaos story-line is the great oppressor of humanity who, now that their downtrodden are in power over them, must be punished. And are being, while Europeans gayly apply the academic/sociology-chaos thumb screws to themselves. Well, until recently, where we see for example Norway and some in other countries beginning to get a grip, face facts.
The enemy in the cross-hairs of US power, controlled by Jarrett/0/MB, is Europe (aka The Church) and the Gulf monarchs, and for the reason just given: punishment of colonial oppressors and their accomplices (to include Arabs, specifically Saud, who is a bad man in his own right as well as cooperating with and empowering the Euro-American oppressors).
Putin must be laughing in gales every evening over his cognac. Such FUD!
Ultimately, this is about envy of Christianity, or what academics and the whipped-up think is Christianity. The Russian set-to against the decadent Latin Church (The West) for the Greek/Russian Church is not a fundamental source of conflict. East and West made and recite the Nicene Creed and read the same Bible. The split is known to have been stupid, lamentable and fixable. Sunnis and Shiia do not recite the same creed or read the same Koran.
The West and Western Civilization in the academic parlance are polemical substitutes for The Church and Christian Civilization.
Update IV: Ralph Peters: When Devils Walk The Earth
Update V: An essay illustrating misunderstanding derived from comparing “the West” (instead of Christianity) against Islam.
Update VI: 2006-vintage Iraq Culture SmartCard to guide Coalition forces in interactions with Iraqis.
DRG: Examines the horizontal component of life only, ignores the vertical component of life.
Update VII: Iraq: A Geography, Jon C. Malinowski, Editor (12MB)
Update VIII: William Wunderle, Army Research Fellow, RAND Corporation: Through The Lens Of Cultural Awareness.
DRG: I found myself concurring with his thesis and wishing he had defined culture — i.e., established his conceptual scheme — with the horizontal component AND the vertical component of its genesis and transmission rather than with only the horizontal component.
The horizontal component is at most half the story, to include phenomenologically though not necessarily empirically, such as we are accustomed, conceptually and technologically, to measuring/cognizing, the sensory dimension (empirics). The other half, at least, of the story is the component of transcendent unity or unambiguous life which expresses itself to man with continuously self-creative power and meaning and to which man responds self-creatively in fresh expressions of culture, religion and morality.
Indeed, man’s responses to the vertical component themselves drive toward transcendence of the horizontal component. Truth is, every dimension, including the inorganic, the organic and the psychic, all of which precede the dimensions of spirit and history, drives toward transcendence of itself. This phenomenon is particularly apparent in the more complete dimensions, those of spirit and history, which distinguish man. The horizontal component always and everywhere drives above itself. This explains, for example, the processes of evolution.
The dialectic of relationship involving the vertical and horizontal components of life in all dimensions is a more accurate descriptive and therefore analytical/policy making scheme than one based solely on the horizontal component of life, such as LTC Wunderle employs.
Still, within the attenuated scope of its conceptual scheme, his work here is most beneficial and I am sure is being taken for the help that it is for our Army and civilian planners.
Update IX: Paul Tillich: The Constituting Entities Of History.
Update X: David Brooks: All Cultures Are Not Equal.
Update XI: Spengler: Is the Breakup of Iraq Good or Bad for America?
I commented at Spengler: He has a Caliphist strategy but not an American one. He thinks the chaos caused by the Caliphist strategy can be and is being managed and will stay at a sufficient distance and he thinks it will not touch America, off which he loves so high to live, BECAUSE America has no strategy and poses, therefore, no threat to Caliphists. This is what customarily is diagnosed as drug-induced schizophrenia.
Update XIII: Codevilla on what it will take to stop ISIS.
Update 16: Ed Driscoll: Why Does The Left Kowtow To Islam?
Update 17: Here an opportunity opens: Russia abandoning Assad.
Update 18: Paul Bremer made a disastrous strategic mistake dissolving the Iraqi Armed Forces and General Staff.
Update 21: Spengler: Balance Of Power – The Board Game
Update 22: Clare M. Lopez: History Of The Muslim Brotherhood Penetration Of The U.S. Government
Update 24: Mosul: Turkey’s Fulda Gap
AUM NAMAH SHIVAYA