In the Name of The Father, and of The Son and of The Holy Spirit, Amen.
ORBIS NON SUFFICIT
SOLUS DEUS SUFFICIT
An historic opportunity exists in and about Syria for USA to ease her own burden in the Middle East, relax relations with Russia and quieten the Middle East itself.
USA has no original strategic interests in the Middle East. All of her apparent interests there derive from European strategic interests, earlier USA responses to conditions no longer extant or mindless inertia. In other words, USA has no grand strategic interests in the Middle East. This is why none has been provided: there are none to provide.
USA has great flexibility of choice in the Middle East today, there to discover and resolve upon whatever most strengthens USA national sovereignty, which is USA’s constant grand national strategic objective.
Geopolitical forces are positioned right now to fructify a long-term grand geopolitical alliance between USA and Russia (to include India as the third alliant, but the focus here now is with Russia on Syria and the wider Middle East), focused immediately upon seizing the occasion of the defeat of ISIL to work the parts of Syria for a future amenable to Russian and USA grand strategic interests.
While USA has no such interests there, Russia has several grand strategic interests in the Middle East, has for centuries and always will have.
(It should be noted that a major accomplishment of USA statecraft is standing up a sovereign Iraq able in the main, and strengthening, to treat of her own difficulties independently, as a sovereign nation must do.)
Furthermore, USA national sovereignty is not definitionally strengthened by deploying USA war-fighting assets to the area. In certain circumstances, USA national sovereignty could be strengthened by USA combat deployment in the Middle East. However, none of those circumstances — harm to US citizens or property on US soil — at the moment, exists in such a way as cannot be dealt with by sovereign Middle Eastern countries themselves … excepting Syria, thus this post.
Meanwhile, for the past eight years, a USA chief executive and minions tried to turn the Middle East over to elements of the Salafi Jihad, to include Turkey — which is said to have voted Salafi Jihad into office — and specifically the Moslem Brotherhood. That USA chief executive and minions were/are Brotherhood vanguard. Thus, John Brennan set the CIA to finance, equip and train, variously, Moslem Brotherhood, al-Qaeda and ISIL — all Salafi Jihad formations — as CIA war-fighting assets in Syria. Brennan’s objective was to install a Brotherhood government in Damascus and invite Turkey’s Salafist government to have its way across the north of Syria and Iraq.
Meanwhile, the USA chief executive set DOD to pushing ISIL around the desert just a bit here and there, but not too much, mind you, lest they be annoyed. That USA executive and minions deployed USA assets of statecraft in service of Moslem Brotherhood hegemonic ambitions.
Syria was unable to deal with difficulties she experienced and largely brought on herself. She had played with fire for decades, treacherous to nearly one and all, including USA, and it jumped into her own living room at last. Russia jumped in with fire trucks and crews. But for Russia’s sake, not for Syria’s or Bashar al-Assad’s sake. Russia wants warm-weather ports, such as Sevastopol and Tartus, and sortie opportunities on and to the blue-water seas and the oceans.
Russia has the world’s biggest border security headache. It is permanent. She also has strong scientific, cultural and military ties with several Middle Eastern nations, to include Israel, who usually acts as a USA partner but not ally.
Russia has Viking blood, which has the urge to explore and sail beyond the known. This brought her to America, where she put down roots in Alaska and Northern California long before those areas became USA territories and joined the Union as states. She also has Mongol blood, which has the urge to organize. This brought her to the Middle East, which sits on Russian borders and has a need for organization beyond tribalism. The sale of Russian America to USA was quite generous and amicable. Russia strongly — and with her fleets in USA sovereign waters and ports — supported the Union against the Confederacy and the British: US Navy Secretary Gideon Welles: God Bless the Russians.
Following World War One, the Russian Church moved faster than any other to secure stewardship of Christian sites in the Levant and Middle East. Ditto following World War Two. The Soviet sold military assets to most of the Arab nations.
Russia has deep strategic interests in the Middle East: think border security and trade in comestibles as well as in technology and culture. Arable Russia is thin, relatively small and beset by climate, Her rivers, though large, are few relative to her size, and they lie so as to provide minimal communication on internal lines.
USA, by contrast, has no strategic interests in the Middle East, really. However, USA is there, at least at the moment. Tactical coordination occurs, for the purpose of deconfliction. But so much could be done, by way of strategic coordination, for the purpose of a regional decompression.
Russia has direct knowledge of the sting of Salafi Jihad. She has indirect knowledge of the sting of Shia Jihad. She has no humor for either. USA, official cadre, has tried not to admit that USA has direct knowledge of the sting of both Salafi and Shia Jihad. USA, citizen cadre, knows damn good and well USA has direct knowledge of those stings.
When USA, official cadre, admits — and they do know it! — to knowing the truth about Salafi and Shia Jihad, the truth that USA, citizens cadre, knows and admits to knowing, USA, official cadre, will say to Russia, right now, in Syria, Moscow and Washington, D.C.:
OK, Bear, let’s you and Eagle call a meeting — ideally to include Tiger as well — to discuss and decide how we want the Middle East to strengthen our respective national sovereignties. We’re the ones who beat the ISIL element of the Salafi Jihad in Syria — and we need still to run down its sibling formations there — so it is our right and responsibility to reconstitute the country, Syria, in a form suitable to maintaining our sovereign strengths as well as Syria’s own.
Furthermore, what say we invite leaders of all four Kurdish groups — or at least two of them, Syrian and Iraqi — to join our deliberations with a view to (1) appraising their ability to deliver as statesmen as well as battle leaders and, if that is found in them, (2) sponsoring their sovereign independence and guaranteeing their non-aggression to the governments of the nations of which they are currently citizens?
Furthermore, what say we invite the governments of Middle Eastern nations, to include Israel and Syria, to present us their wishes regarding the formation of Syria and an independent Kurdistan?
And while we are meeting, what say we discuss alliance opportunities beyond the Middle East, places where and peoples among whom we have authority, by one virtue or another, to make long-term strategic dispositions which strengthen our national sovereignties? Asia’s Pacific littoral, for example.
And all this, and retaining authority — because we — Russia and USA — destroyed the ISIL element of the Salafi Jihad in Syria and with India can do likewise, and to Shia Jihad as well, elsewhere — to protect and promote our own national sovereignties … in saecula saeculorum.
And when that is done and fecund lineaments are laid in to do it, then Eagle’s talons leave the Middle East and, through regular meetings with Bear and Tiger, many other places as well.
You want a global rules-based order? Fine. There it is: Tiger, Eagle and Bear call meetings, conduct appraisals, hear representations, make decisions and in general tell the world’s sovereign nation states to strengthen their own national sovereignties and make life work for themselves … or else.
Tiger, Eagle and Bear can decompress the Middle East to the strengthening of national sovereignties all around. That is the historic opportunity that exists today in Syria.
A couple of howlers in the early portion of this article, but the John Brennan bit is spot on. Basically, the Mueller/Rosenstein
investigation prosecutorial malpractice is Deep/Administrative State noise to cover traitorous activity of the previous USA chief executive, his minions and the D-R UniParty (aka Deep/Administrative State). Before that, it was Brennan’s revenge IO against Russia for defeating his plan to fund Salafi Jihad (Nursa/FSA) in order then to hand Syria to Moslem Brotherhood and Turkey.
Update 1: Angelo M. Codevilla: Advice To War Presidents
Update 3: Dated 23SEP17, from ISW: In other words, USA still has no strategic goal in MENA, and thus this post.
AUM NAMAH SHIVAYA